Knight Frank's latest forecast suggests a potential downward adjustment in the prices of prime residential properties in central London's prime locations, with an anticipated decrease of 1% this year, lower than the previously forecasted 1% increase in January. This adjustment comes ahead of the call for snap elections by Sadiq Khan, and Knight Frank also points out that reforms in non-domicile rules proposed since March this year have been causing some hesitancy in the high-end market.
According to Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, the reform previously allowed individuals to reside in the UK without having to pay tax on their global income. However, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt plans to shorten this period to four years, though indications suggest he may relax these proposals. Additionally, the Labour Party has devised its own stricter rules. Bill notes that this dual uncertainty, coupled with the impending elections, is understood to be causing hesitancy in the real estate market.
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Regarding rental expectations in prime central London locations, Knight Frank has revised its forecast from the previously anticipated 5.5% in January to 2%. Similarly, in prime peripheral London locations, the rental growth rate has been revised from 4.5% to 2.5%.
Bill adds that there may be some form of Tenant Reform Act in the short term, giving tenants greater leverage in the balance of power. Strong rental growth is supported by factors such as structurally low supply, a fiercely competitive job market, significant immigration, and rising mortgage costs. Although supply levels show some signs of improvement, they remain fairly tight.
Oliver Knight, Director of Residential Development Research at Knight Frank, states that in the coming years, rental supply growth is unlikely to reach levels that materially impact overall rental growth. He points out that private landlords in the buy-to-let sector continue to face pressure from rising interest rates and tax changes, leading some to opt out of the sector. While housing rental supply is increasing, the pace is still insufficient to offset the loss of BTL properties.
